Food security, agricultural innovation, and smallholder livelihoods in East Africa: Technology adoption, extension services, and value chain integration in Kenya, Ethiopia, and Tanzania

Background: Smallholder farmers constitute the backbone of agricultural production in East Africa, providing food security for the majority of rural households and employing the largest share of the economically active population. Yet smallholder agricultural systems face compounding pressures from climate change-induced weather variability, land fragmentation, limited access to improved inputs, inadequate extension services, and constrained market integration that collectively limit productivity, income, and food security outcomes.

Aim: This study examined how agricultural innovation adoption, access to extension services, and value chain integration influence food security and livelihood outcomes among smallholder farmers in Kenya, Ethiopia, and Tanzania, with social capital and market access as moderating variables.

Methodology: Panel data from 1,260 smallholder households across nine districts in the three countries, collected in 2022 and 2025, were analysed using fixed effects regression, endogenous switching regression for innovation adoption, and structural equation modelling for livelihood outcomes. Food security was measured using the Food Insecurity Experience Scale. Moderation analysis employed the Hayes PROCESS framework.

Findings: Agricultural innovation adoption, specifically improved seed varieties, digital extension services, and mobile market platforms, significantly improved household food security and income outcomes across all three countries. Extension service access moderated innovation adoption effects positively, while value chain integration showed the strongest standalone effect on income outcomes. Social capital significantly moderated the value chain integration-income relationship.

Contributions: The study contributes to agricultural economics, food security, and rural development literature by providing longitudinal panel evidence of innovation-livelihood pathways among East African smallholders and identifying social capital and extension access as critical moderating conditions for sustainable agricultural transformation.